Let's say you're playing a tournament. It's the money bubble of the Bodog $100,000 Guaranteed and you shove with Queens versus a raiser who has you covered because he's been pushing his stack around as he's supposed to. Even though he has enough chips behind where a fold is correct since you've been playing super tight, he calls off a lot of chips with Ace-7 offsuit, spikes an Ace and sends you packing. Frustrating, no? Obv.
Then you vent to a poker buddy or make a blog entry about it - whatever. Inevitably you are going to receive the reply, "Don't worry because you'll win against that call in the long run."
My usual reply is something to the effect of: No fucking shit. And I say this for two reasons.
- I know what hand ranges and odds are. I don't need to be told right after I bust out as a massive favorite on the money bubble.
- It's a stupid thing for someone to say.
How many times in your poker life will you be on the money bubble in this spot? The answer is: Not many. You're far more likely to be flipping than to be massively ahead and if this happens in the WSOP or a WPT event, or even an FTOPS event - well, that's probably the only time it's happening in your poker life. So guess what? It doesn't work out in the long run.
That means running this hand through PokerStove 5,000 times to show someone that they will in fact come out ahead in the long run is retarded.
The fact is this may happen a few dozen times in a tournament and you could be unlucky enough to lose more of those than you are supposed to if the math works out in the long run.
Also, the times where it will work out could be during inconsequential stages of a tournament whereas the couple times you get sucked out on could be at a Final Table of a big event, or on the money bubble where winning would have put you in great position etc. etc.
The short version is this: "In the long run" is a bullshit term that doesn't mean as much as people think it does.